Middle East tensions test Africa’s airline recovery as cargo, passenger growth faces risk

AFRICA – Escalating Middle East tensions have threatened key trade routes and fragile airline profit margins as prolonged airspace disruption risks reversing Africa’s strong 2026 passenger and cargo growth.

Industry officials warn that cargo traffic faces immediate risk. “One of the most immediate effects we are likely to see if the situation is not quickly resolved is loss of cargo,” said Adedayo Olawuyi, Chief Commercial Officer at Uganda Airlines.

“We take a lot of perishables to Dubai, but it is also a major supply base for the region, meaning it also generates a lot of business travel by traders,” he added.

The Middle East serves as critical transit corridor linking Africa with Asia. Many African travellers heading to markets such as China rely on connections through these Gulf aviation hubs.

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), airlines on the continent already pay some of the highest fuel costs globally, often up to 30% above average. Fuel represents the single largest operating cost, with any spike in oil prices triggered by regional conflict could quickly erode already narrow profit margins.

Before hostilities, IATA projected African airlines would earn net profit of just US$1.3 per passenger in 2026, compared to global average of US$7.9. The disparity highlights fragile economics on a continent accounting for only 2.2% of global passenger traffic and 2.1% of air cargo.

Despite challenges, January 2026 showed encouraging signs with African airlines recording 11.7% year-on-year passenger demand increase and cargo demand surging 18.2%, fastest growth of any region globally.

IATA Director-General Willie Walsh warned: “Events over the weekend have introduced some uncertainty into the evolution of traffic and fuel costs. We all hope for an early peaceful resolution. In the meantime, it is critical that states respect their obligation to keep civilians, and civil aviation free from harm”.

Insurance costs typically rise during geopolitical instability as airlines face higher risk assessments for routes operating near conflict zones.

For hospitality investors, the stakes translate directly into tourism pricing and supply chain reliability across the continent.

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